Tesla set to release third quarter 2021 deliveries


Tesla is set to release deliveries for the third quarter of 2021 anytime now. Here’s what we think are the deliveries, as well as what other analysts are saying.

A solid Q3 2021

Despite a global chip shortage, we believe Tesla is expected to deliver a record number of vehicles this quarter. Despite the shortage of chips, Tesla has shown strong adaptability by being able to manufacture its own parts and adjust its processes as needed. Tesla also has superior manufacturing and engineering on its side.

We believe Tesla will deliver 237,000 vehicles in the third quarter of 2021. This is due to the strong total deliveries to China expected (over 50,000 as of September 2021 alone) from Giga Shanghai, as well as a continued increase in global demand. . This number doesn’t even take into account Giga Berlin or Giga Austin, TX yet!

Over the past year, here’s what Tesla has delivered each quarter:

  • Q3 2020: 139,300
  • Q4, 2020: 180,570
  • Q1 2021: 184,800
  • Q2 2021: 201 250
  • Q3, 2021: ???

Our estimate of 237,000 for the third quarter of 2021 represents an increase of approximately 70% over the third quarter of 2020, which had 139,000 vehicles. Let’s do some fun math – if Tesla continued to grow 70% each year, this is what the third quarter will look like in 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 and beyond!

(Estimates for the third quarter of the year only, at a growth rate of 70%):

  • Q3 2021: 237,000
  • Q3, 2022: 402,900
  • Q3, 2023: 684,930
  • Q3, 2024: 1,164,381
  • Q3, 2025: 1,979,448
  • Q3, 2026: 3,365,061
  • Q3, 2027: 5,720,604
  • T3, 2028: 9,725,027
  • T3, 2029: 16 532 545
  • T3, 2030: 28 105 327

If Tesla were somehow able to improve at this rate, the results will be staggering by the end of the decade. Let’s see if Tesla can sustain this growth! I think they can with continued innovation, new factories, improved manufacturing, improved safety, fully autonomous driving and the highest performing cars available.

What other analysts have to say

Here’s what other analysts estimate for deliveries in Q3 2021:

  • FactSet – 204k
  • Wall Street – 221k
  • Gary Black – 226 / 230k
  • Troy Teslike – 235k
  • Twitter Bulls – 230k / 240k
  • Wilson FrunkPuppy -240k
  • Goldie – 246k
  • Daily Rob / Tesla – 247k
  • Stun – 250k
  • Umbisam – 251.8k
  • Tesla Economist – 248k / 252k

FactSet is supposed to be a popular Twitter channel on trending, but I think they grossly underestimate shipments for this quarter.

Some think Tesla Daily’s Rob estimates too high, but he has a very detailed spreadsheet – more detailed than anyone I’ve ever seen. Don’t be surprised if we see a number close to what he predicts. Tesla surprised us all in the last quarter with their quarterly deliveries and generated profits.

I think most Twitter users who are bulls on Tesla stocks will be correct if their prediction is around 235,000.

Will Tesla slow down?

I don’t think Tesla is going to slow down. They have advantages across the board – manufacturing, technology, cost, safety, performance, brand, pioneer, etc … that I don’t think anyone is going to grab hold of anytime soon. It would take Elon Musk to leave Tesla and Tesla to stagnate for many years for anyone to catch up.

Elon Musk also mentioned that the chip shortage is likely to ease next year and that will only be a boon for Tesla. I also look forward to the release of the CyberTruck and Model 2 – or whatever the name of the compact vehicle is.

What do you think of Tesla’s deliveries in Q3 2021 – will they be over or under 235,000?

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Jeremy Johnson is an investor and supporter of Tesla. He first invested in Tesla in 2017 after years of following Elon Musk and admiring his work ethic and intelligence. He has since grown into a Tesla Bull, covering everything he can find on Tesla, while also taking an interest in other EV companies. Jeremy covers Tesla developments at Torque News. You can follow it on Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn and Instagram to stay in touch and follow her Tesla news coverage on Torque News.

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